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Nuts Issue – Understanding the Volatile Dating Between LNG and you can Around the globe Energy Segments


Nuts Issue – Understanding the Volatile Dating Between LNG and you can Around the globe Energy Segments

It’s been an incredibly wild year for U.S. LNG exports. In the past year, global gas prices have seen both historic lows and highs, as markets swung from extreme demand destruction from COVID-19 for much of last year, to supply shortages by late 2020 and into early 2021 due to maintenance outages, weather events, Panama Canal delays, and vessel shortages. The U.S. natural gas market has also dealt with its share of anomalies, from a historic hurricane season in 2020 to the extreme cold weather event last month that briefly triggered a severe gas shortage in the U.S. Midcontinent and Texas and left millions of people without power for more than a week. Given these events, U.S. LNG feedgas demand and export trends have run the gamut, from experiencing massive cargo cancellations and low utilization rates to recording new highs. Throughout this incredibly tumultuous year, U.S. LNG operators have had to adjust, managing the good times and bad and proving operational flexibility in ways that will serve them for years to come. Here at RBN we track and report on all things LNG in our LNG Voyager report, and we’ve been hard at work enhancing and expanding our coverage to capture the rapidly evolving global and domestic factors affecting the U.S. LNG export market, including terminal operations, marginal costs and export economics, and international supply-demand fundamentals. S. LNG has changed in the past year and trends to watch this spring. Warning! Today’s blog is a blatant advertorial for our revamped LNG Voyager Report.

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To completely master just how much this new You.S. LNG export field changed prior to now 12 months, we must return from the one year in order to , until the pandemic outcomes had devote. It may be hard to imagine men and women pre-COVID months now, very allow us to set brand new stage. The fresh U.S. got just completed adding twenty-five MMtpa (step three.34 Bcf/d) of liquefaction and export potential over the course of 2019 and you will early 2020. Feedgas shipments and you will LNG exports during this period have been foreseeable to own the quintessential part, ramping right up once the liquefaction trains was in fact accomplished following constantly performing near complete usage of ability as the equipment were brought on the internet and industrial contracts knocked for the. Very, in February out-of a year ago, feedgas request are close exactly what was following record levels, with little indication of volatility away from routine maintenance incidents. It appeared like all the LNG you will create try grow – that has been a narrative LNG designers was indeed happy to render.

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Then COVID-19 hit, decimating global demand, sending global gas prices to all-time lows and turning the economics for exporting U.S. LNG upside down for the first time since early 2016 when the first train at Cheniere Energy’s Sabine Pass terminal began exporting. We discussed the unraveling of the U.S. LNG export market that followed in a number of blogs last spring and summer, including Split They if you ask me Lightly, Undone and LNG Interruption. The upshot is that offtakers of U.S. LNG began cancelling cargoes and, by summer, feedgas demand plummeted (dashed blue oval in Figure 1). Feedgas deliveries in July and August averaged just 3.66 Bcf/d, or about 40% of where they were in the first quarter of 2020 and just 42% of capacity at the time. Cancellations lessened by late summer as pandemic lockdowns eased, first in Asia and later Europe, and global prices improved. But just as U.S. LNG exports were poised to begin a recovery, a record-setting hurricane season wreaked havoc on the operations of Gulf Coast LNG terminals, particularly in Louisiana (see You Spin Me personally Bullet). Throughout the fall, nearly every U.S. LNG terminal faced some kind of outage, port closure, or shut-in for maintenance.